Coinbase Earnings May Be Tempered by Bitcoin Dip

But now investors should expect “a more mild second quarter,” wrote Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev in a Tuesday note.

Crypto markets have cooled recently, with bitcoin falling 11% last month. It likely dampened Coinbase revenue and trading volumes. Dolev estimates second-quarter total trading volumes ranged $215 billion to $220 billion. Trading volumes in the first quarter came in at $312 billion.

Dolev is a Coinbase bear, and has had a Sell rating on the stock since late 2022. His current $145 price target implies a 34% fall from Monday’s close.

But he isn’t alone in estimating a weak second quarter. Raymond James analyst Patrick O’Shaughnessy, who rates Coinbase stock at Market Perform, also cut estimates in a Tuesday note. He now expects second-quarter trading volume of $214.8 billion, down from an earlier estimate for $252.2 billion.

Both analysts see second-quarter revenue of about $1.3 billion, estimating an about 19% decline from the quarter before. The overall consensus for revenue in the market has also dipped slightly to $1.409 billion compared with $1.414 billion a month ago.

Coinbase didn’t respond to any questions from Barron’s.

To be sure, these sell-side analyst estimates still show an improvement from a year ago—a time when the crypto market was reeling from high-profile blowups and rising interest rates. In the year-ago second quarter, total trading volumes came in at just $145 billion.

Write to Karishma Vanjani at [email protected].